It's over. No!

[Tomster]

It's over. No!

Before you continue reading, please note that I may say something that contradicts your personal, political or any other views. If you cannot be open to this, please do not read on.

Since months the world (or a part of it) is fighting against a pandemic. Most of you know the consequences of a lockdown. Most of you know how it feels to be forced to stay at home. With these measures an exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be prevented. It was a tool to buy time to push forward research, procure protective equipment and expand the capacity of intensive care units.

In the first few weeks I heard voices of virologists who initially played down this virus, but then quickly changed their minds. The same applied to politicians, such as the German Minister of Health. 
I've said it before, but I don't mind repeating it. I am neither epidemiologist nor virologist. Even the CEO of the company I led for years is not a medical doctor, not a virologist, not an epidemiologist. However, he had already taken precautions towards the end of January. A few weeks later, he sent all employees home. They still work from home, at least those who can do their job from home. (Others have a long paid vacation.)

Has he been overprotective? Today I can easily answer this question. No! He just did the right thing. He did the right thing by common sense.

What I have seen in the world over the last few months are people who can't handle the term caution, don't understand it and worse, don't even try to understand it. I am not talking about the people who have to pursue their daily breadwinning. I am also not talking about the people whose existence is threatened because they had to close their business (temporarily). I am talking about the people for whom a drink in the bar is more important than the health of other people. I'm talking about people who whine about not being able to take a (long-distance) travel. - But yes, these businesses, which we should avoid at present, need our support - but in a different way. 

It's been months since my avatar wore a mask. Even today I read about the enormous risks of wearing masks from people in social networks.

Was there a pandemic before, that made people stupid? Probably.

If wearing masks were as harmful as these (sorry) stupid people claim, then doctors, especially surgeons, would certainly have different protective clothing. Why do surgeons still wear masks? Why do medical staff in the U.S. still complains not to have enough masks? 
As a child I already wore a mask during the cold winter months. We call that a scarf. 

It is true that the simple masks offer the wearer a reduced level of protection. However, the wearer of the simple mask protects other people. This is exactly the reason why everyone should wear a mask. It is also important to handle it correctly. The fabric itself should not be touched with your fingers (or played with it like Governor Cuomo during the latest briefing). 

A face mask is not a substitute for other precautions to prevent spread of COVID-19. 

"New evidence suggests recently developed reusable cloth masks can provide up to 70 per cent protection and the Australian public can be educated about how to care for a reusable mask while undertaking the other elements of the COVID prevention strategies."

https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria-s-second-surge-prompts-renewed-calls-for-mandatory-face-masks-greg-hunt-weighs-in-20200629-p557e3.html

Masks in combination with physical distance, hand hygiene, ... help to lower the infection rate. 

In fact, I wonder how much of decency and solidarity is left in our world. 

When I read a statement like "I do not want to pay for the health of others", I ask myself the question where humanity has gone. Health is our greatest asset. For me this means that everyone must have access to medical care. What's so bad about a public health care? Why do public health care (basic health care) exist in so many countries? 

Should health systems be designed solely for profit? I don't think so. 

Is this called left-wing thinking?

When I look at the U.S. in these weeks, I must admit that my view has changed fundamentally for several reason. I hadn't seen this, didn't expect this. I'm helpless. I'm sorry.

I'm worried.

It is our common task to do everything to protect the health and life of all of us. In every country!

Thanks for reading. 

[majikthis]

Spot on, my friend. Couldn't have said it any better.

On 6/30/2020 at 3:07 PM, Tomster said:

It's over. No!

Of course it's not. China is already struggling with the 2nd wave, in the US, in Latin America the first wave is still going strong, in Europe the no. of infectstions is rising in countries like Croatia, the Czech Rep., Serbia and Belarus (whose dictator Lukashenka is cut from the same cloth as Brazil's Bolsanaro. He actually said that vodka and bacon /WTF?/ is good against the virus).

------ ----------------- --------------

I really don't get this mask-phobia. Sure it's not comfy (esp. if you wear glasses), it doesn't look nice - in fact it is a bloody nuisance. But surely anyone can wear (and bear with)  it for the 30 minutes - 1 hour it takes to do one's shopping?

Or you can look at the international evidence - countries that enforced the use of masks at the early stages of the pandemic have got through it relatively unscathed. My own Hungary, or Slovakia, Iceland, Georgia (Republic of, not the US state), New Zealand etc.  You don't have to be a virologist to see that masks do lower the risk of infection.

One point I was particularly glad @Tomster made is that the wearer of a simple mask protects other people. It shows you care about others.

(It is is also worth mentioning that the general aesthetic quality of the planet would improve considerably if Trump wore a mask.)

 

[Tomster]

Thanks for joining @majikthis 

17 hours ago, majikthis said:

Or you can look at the international evidence - countries that enforced the use of masks at the early stages of the pandemic have got through it relatively unscathed. My own Hungary, or Slovakia, Iceland, Georgia (Republic of, not the US state), New Zealand etc.  You don't have to be a virologist to see that masks do lower the risk of infection.

Jena, a Thuringian town in Germany, made masks (cover your face with a piece of cloth) mandatory quite early. Back then they had 156 confirmed cases. The number of today, which is the same since weeks, is 162. 5 persons were tested positive after returning from other states. Masks simply help in addition to physical distance and hygiene. 

17 hours ago, majikthis said:

it doesn't look nice - in fact it is a bloody nuisance

I sweat like an elk, but I prefer to be alive/healthy.

17 hours ago, majikthis said:

(It is is also worth mentioning that the general aesthetic quality of the planet would improve considerably if Trump wore a mask.)

You're not alone. 

😁

It is certainly true that the governments in question play a role that should not be underestimated. However, I think that everyone can inform themselves and act responsibly. 

 

The strategy with herd immunity will not work either. So far there is no real proof that immunity is given after surviving the disease. A study showed that after 2-3 months, antibodies could no longer be detected in some participants. However, it was pointed out that the number of participants in the study was small, and that somatic cells themselves have a kind of memory to possibly fight the virus. 

On 4/20/2020 at 1:47 PM, Tomster said:

A few thoughts on herd immunity. 

There are several opinions when the herd immunity threshold is reached. I often read that a herd immunity is given when 60-70 % of the population is immune. Wikipedia lists 50-80 % for the SARS outbreak 2002-2004, for Covid-19 29-74 %. 

Let us assume that herd immunity is achieved when 50 % of the population is immune. Additionally, let's assume that we want to achieve this goal, a natural herd immunity, in 18 months (547.5 days). 

The United States have a population of approximately 328,000,000.

328,000,000 / 2 = 164,000,000

164,000,000 / 547 = 299,817

This very simplified calculation shows that there would have to be 299,817 new infections daily over the next 18 months. 

173,893 new infections daily if we are very optimistic and calculate with 29 % threshold. 

 

I wrote this in April. https://www.adonismale.com/blogs/entry/1013-on-covid19-second-wave/

It's basic math. The U. S. has a mortality rate of about 4.6 percent currently. If I continue my calculation with only 2 percent, 3,280,000 Americans will die. 

That price is far too high. 

Wear a mask! 

 

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-AU&mid=/m/02j71&gl=AU&ceid=AU:en

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data

 

We follow some (leading) experts on Twitter. If someone is interested in the short list, please leave a short comment. 

 

 

(Alarming) 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Tomster

[bakersman94]

going back to when i covered that rinsing one`s mouth helped reduce your chances of getting covid19, i came across the audio file i had gotten the info from. i`m sharing it here. i just hope you guys are able to listen to it. i think it 4 minutes 54 seconds long. when you click on it it downloads to your default download folder.

 

Covid19.m4a

Edited July 2, 2020 by bakersman94

[Guest lev_igor33]

I wholeheartedly agree with the points of Tomster's premise. Doctor's have been using masks as protective equipment forever.  In this country , you have a fool in the White House who makes mask wearing a political issue. If US is ever going to get a handle on this epidemic, follow science not politicians. 

[Youri]

@Tomster & @majikthis

Well said guys!

[Tomster]

22 hours ago, bakersman94 said:

going back to when i covered that rinsing one`s mouth helped reduce your chances of getting covid19

I didn't hear her say "Wear a mask.". 

On 6/8/2020 at 9:05 AM, Tomster said:

According to current research, it is correct that the virus initially (mainly) enters parts of the upper respiratory tract (nose, mouth, throat). It doesn't stay there three days (taking a nap). As soon as it finds a matching receptor, it docks to this receptor [angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)]. SARS-CoV-2 uses the receptor to infiltrate cells, according to a paper published in March in Cell Press (https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30229-4.pdf). The virus can latch onto ACE2 and sneak inside, replicating itself inside the cell and then wreaking havoc throughout the body.

Unfortunately this is probably one of the many myths that spread like a virus.

Of course I'm not a doctor, a virologist... However, I have been following the research and publications since months.

The University of Queenlands (https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2020/03/coronavirus-claims-checked-experts😞

2. Can drinking a lot of water, gargling with warm water and salt or vinegar eliminate the virus? What about drinking lemon in hot water, or other home remedies?
Myth. Many people have asked what they can do to “boost their immune system” and there’s no shortage of quacks and scam artists happy to answer that question.
Hot drinks with lemon and honey, vitamin supplements, foods with garlic and ginger, apple cider vinegar, gargling with salt water… none of these things has any impact on your immune response and won’t eliminate the virus.
But if they make you feel calmer and healthier, they can’t hurt. (Except putting vinegar in your nose – that’s not a good time.)
Other myths include that the virus can’t survive above 27ºC (80.6ºF). We can tell this is wrong with a moment’s thought, since it can function in our bodies at 37.5ºC.
Some have claimed that drinking various beverages will help “flush out” the virus, but the virus does its work inside cells. Again, though, hot water with lemon will help you stay hydrated, so it won’t hurt.

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/coronavirus-facts-vs-myths.html

Harvard T.H. Chan School Of Public Health
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/india-center/myths-vs-facts/

World Health Organization
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

There are further publications about this. 

 

I just had to write this because I think it is dangerous for your own health to trust these myths as it is dangerous for others to share such myths. 

Whenever I quote myself, I feel trapped in a time loop. 

"Rinsing one' s mouth" was an official recommendation for the containment of influenza in various Asian countries for several years. It's obsolete, it's gone. It is a myth. 

These myths make people believe that this can prevent an infection. It's wrong. 

We use our channels and our network to give people help and hope. But every day we are confronted with misinformation, myths and conspiracy theories. It is exhausting and tiring. 

Good night

#StaySafe #StayHealty

 

[Kawika]

Very well written and in my view completely accurate. Often watching or reading the news on the actions and behaviors of (mostly US citizens) I shake my head in disbelief and wonder if the world will find a way to understanding , caring and basic human kindness again.

[majikthis]

On 6/30/2020 at 3:07 PM, Tomster said:

I read about the enormous risks of wearing masks from people in social networks.

Could you share a few of those? Just for (sarcatic) laughs. I'm just asking because I can't think of any. 

While I kind of like Lukashenka's idea that bacon and vodka can protect you, we all know from a  terrifically reliable source that directly injecting disinfectant in your veins while relaxing in a sunbed is the thing to do.

@Tomster  might remember that I asked in another thread whether masks might become fashion accessories. Well, yes.

For horror and sci-fi fans:

  

For Michael Jackson fans:

 

For royalty:

For brides:

and grooms:

For kids and infantile people like me:

 

[bakersman94]

10 hours ago, Tomster said:

I didn't hear her say "Wear a mask.". 

hey Tommy, i wasn`t trying to say you can cure an infection by rinsing your mouth. the audio file only said that rinsing ones mouth with warm water several times a day can wash the virus into ones stomach where the stomach acids could kill covid19. i am not saying it works, i am only repeating what i heard. if this action does not wash covid19 from one's mouth/throat into one's stomach where the acid can kill it, then i guess i was steered in the wrong direction. i got the file at the end of March 2020, from one of my sisters on facebook. i`m sure she thought she was trying to help by passing it along. with love from Wes!! Hugs!!! 

[Tomster]

Wes. Every day brings new insights from research. The most important thing right now is that we protect ourselves in the best possible way. We tend to follow the simplest protective measures that offer us the best comfort. This makes us vulnerable, as we neglect other, possibly more effective protective measures.

So far there is no scientific evidence that the mentioned rinse protects against infection. (I'll come back to this later.) There is also no scientific evidence that the stomach acid kills the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are ongoing researches.

April 29, 2020 - How the new coronavirus enters respiratory tissue, exploits immune defenses
Harvard Stem Cell Institute

[...] Recent research had found that SARS-CoV-2 uses a human cell receptor called ACE2 to gain entry into cells, aided by an enzyme called TMPRSS2. That led the researchers to ask a simple question: which cells in respiratory and intestinal tissue express both ACE2 and TMPRSS2?

To address this question, the team turned to single-cell RNA sequencing, which identifies which genes are expressed in individual cells. They found that only a small percentage of human respiratory and intestinal cells make both ACE2 and TMPRSS2. Those cells fall in three types: cells in the nose that secrete mucus, lung cells that help maintain air sacs, and cells that line the small intestine and are involved in nutrient absorption. [...]

https://hsci.harvard.edu/news/how-new-coronavirus-enters-respiratory-tissue-exploits-immune-defenses

 

June 12, 2020 - How COVID-19 Affects the Body

 

June 30, 2020 - Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

[...] We have elucidated the transmission pathways of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in the three epicenters. Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

[...]

We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics. [...]

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/26/14857

 

May 21, 2020 - Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering
The New England Journal of Medicine

[...] Aerosols and droplets generated during speech have been implicated in the person-to-person transmission of viruses, and there is current interest in understanding the mechanisms responsible for the spread of Covid-19 by these means. The act of speaking generates oral fluid droplets that vary widely in size,1 and these droplets can harbor infectious virus particles. Whereas large droplets fall quickly to the ground, small droplets can dehydrate and linger as “droplet nuclei” in the air, where they behave like an aerosol and thereby expand the spatial extent of emitted infectious particles.2 We report the results of a laser light-scattering experiment in which speech-generated droplets and their trajectories were visualized. [...]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800?query=featured_home

(Please watch the video.)

 

@bakersman94  Please don't get me wrong. There are many people who, when they hear the audio or read about the mouthwash, think that it replaces other measures. They simply think along the line: "I rinse my mouth three times a day, so I cannot get infected. Why shall I keep distance, stay at home or wear a mask?". This thinking can be life-threatening. That's why I see it as my responsibility to enlighten people... (a little bit, as good as I can)

Fine in addition, but it is not a substitute for other precautions to prevent spread of COVID-19.

 

But, ... I said I come back to this point again.

June 3, 2020 - Possible beneficial role of throat gargling in the coronavirus disease pandemic
U.S. National Library of Medicine

[...] A randomized trial study in Japan showed that throat gargling with tap water 3 times a day significantly reduced the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection (UTRI) by 36%. Another randomized trial study in England showed that nasal cavity irrigation and throat gargling with hypersonic saline during 48 h after the symptom onset in patients with UTRI significantly reduced the period of illness by 1.9 days, the use of medications by 36%, household contact transmission by 35%, and the viral load significantly. The possible reasons for the effectiveness of throat gargling may be that the physical washing agent used in throat gargling causes the shedding of the virus and infected cells or causes the chemical inactivation of the virus. The concentration of chlorine in tap water in Japan reaches >0.1 mg/L and up to 0.5–0.8 mg/L in some areas, which is enough to ensure inactivation of the virus. Chloride ions in hypertonic saline have been shown to inhibit virus replication and are used by cells to produce hypochlorous acid to exert antiviral effects. Although throat gargling with chloride solutions has positive results, further large-scale studies are needed to determine the chloride concentration and gargling frequency. As the cost of throat gargling with tap water or saline is inexpensive and almost free, the social and economic benefits of reducing UTRI might be huge. [...]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7266767/

 

The most important thing is and remains to avoid infection. 

 

The COVID Tracking Project (U.S.)
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts

[Tomster]

I would like to add a fashionable mask to @majikthis  's collection. 

Paris Hilton, this mask DOES NOT protect you. 

[majikthis]

10 hours ago, Tomster said:

There is also no scientific evidence that the stomach acid kills the SARS-CoV-2 virus

I've read that the RNS of the virus and "live" viruses have been found in stool samples. Here is one article from webmd

May 27, 2020 -- A new study has shown that COVID-19 virus isolated from the stool of a sick patient can infect cells in a petri dish.

The research is a step toward proving a new route of transmission for the infection. If confirmed by future studies, it would mean that people could get sick by ingesting tiny amounts of stool from others who are infected -- called the fecal-oral route of transmission. Other diarrhea diseases that pass from person to person this way include cholera and hepatitis.

“The world is covered in a thin veneer of stool,” says David Brett-Major, MD, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, referring to studies that have found bacteria from stool on nearly everything we touch daily -- from computer keyboards to the soles of our shoes to our clothes.

“Stool tends to get everywhere, so regular hand-washing is important,” he says.

Gastrointestinal symptoms -- nausea and diarrhea -- are common in patients who catch COVID-19. Previous studies have shown that about half of COVID-19 patients have the virus in their stool. Traces of the virus seem to remain in stool long after the virus can no longer be detected in nose and throat swabs.

Scientists in China who performed this test with virus they isolated from the stool of a COVID-19 patient found that it could infect living cells. When they looked at infected cells under an electron microscope, they could see the cells releasing viral particles that were presumably ready to go infect more cells, highlighting the potential for the disease to spread this way. The researchers also determined there was about 100 times more virus in stool than in samples taken from the patients’ mouth and nose.

...

(However) The study sampled virus from the stool of very sick patients. There’s no way to know whether people with milder infections would generate as much of the virus or shed it as heavily. The study also used an experimental system -- scientists put cells and the virus together in the same petri dish to see what would happen. For that reason, it doesn’t reflect real-world transmission.

Still, Mathema says that in certain settings, the virus in stool could be an important factor in the spread of the disease.

...

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200527/covid19-virus-found-in-stool-may-be-infectious

Edited July 4, 2020 by majikthis

[Tomster]

12 hours ago, majikthis said:

“Stool tends to get everywhere, so regular hand-washing is important,” he says.

WH ... WH... WH!

 

European scientists have succeeded in detecting Sars-CoV-2 in minute quantities in wastewater before corona infections became known in the region concerned. An early warning system is now to be installed by monitoring wastewater.

THE LIST OF ALL KWR-PUBLICATIES ON SARS-COV-2 IN SEWAGE WATER
https://www.kwrwater.nl/en/actueel/covid-19-publicaties/

 

 

[me7022]

I am expecting another lockdown to happen soon. People are being selfish about how they feel vs the health of others. But that's the way humans are they care about themselves not others.  

[Tomster]

Welcome to AdonisMale @me7022 

A new lockdown will add even more serious damage to the economy. 

25 minutes ago, me7022 said:

People are being selfish about how they feel vs the health of others.

I think there's a cultural connection. Here in Australia, as well as in Germany, the majority have complied with the guidelines. 

We are in Stage 3 of reopening here in Queensland since July 3rd. At the same time Queensland Government is tightening its border restrictions. https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/public-health-directions/border-restrictions

(1 active case) 

https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics

Meanwhile, some German federal states are discussing the lifting of the obligation to wear masks when grocery shopping. 

 

[Tomster]

On 7/2/2020 at 3:07 PM, Tomster said:

Jena, a Thuringian town in Germany, made masks (cover your face with a piece of cloth) mandatory quite early.

"Jena presents a unique case in Germany (see also Mitze et al. 2020), as the obligation to wear face masks in public transport, shops, and workplaces was introduced much earlier there (on 6 April) than in all other regions in Germany (around 27 April). The introduction of obligatory face masks was accompanied by a public campaign “Jena zeigt Maske” (“Jena shows mask”), which started one week earlier to make the local population aware of this novel measure.

We can observe differences in the timing of introducing face masks across German regions due to the institutional setup of the German federal system: according to the German Infection Protection Act, federal states are in charge of formulating and prescribing public health measures to fight the spread of infections. Local municipalities and health authorities then decide on the implementation of specific measures, e.g. the timing of their introduction. And Jena was the first to act.

If we look at the number of COVID-19 cases in Jena, masks seem to have a positive effect. The number of registered new infections fell to almost zero in the days after masks were introduced. But was this really due to the introduction of masks and a publicly visible campaign? Unfortunately, there is no second Jena in Germany, which would allow us to measure the spread of COVID-19 if face masks had not been introduced under otherwise identical conditions. "

June 22, 2020 - Unmasked! The effect of face masks on the spread of COVID-19

https://voxeu.org/article/unmasked-effect-face-masks-spread-covid-19

[Tomster]

 A little hope

"An experimental coronavirus vaccine triggered an immune response against COVID-19 in study participants, and it has only minor side effects, according to new data published in the medical journal The Lancet.

The vaccine, called AZD1222 for now, is being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca. It uses a different, harmless virus to deliver biological instructions for how to fight off the coronavirus.

According to a phase one/phase two study of more than 1,000 patients, the vaccine triggered two immune responses: an increase in antibodies and a T-cell response."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/20/893211400/early-oxford-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-data-encouraging-scientists-say

 

"The pharmaceutical company Astrazeneca plans to launch a coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year. This vaccine is to be available worldwide "at cost price", as the company's boss, Pascal Soriot, tells the French radio station RTL. One unit is to be sold for 2.50 Euros. "Our goal is to make the vaccine available to everyone," Soriot says. The company hopes to produce a vaccine by the end of the year. "Maybe a bit earlier if all goes well," Soriot adds."

Source: n-tv.de (German) 

But it is too early to break out in jubilation. Only in further broad tests will it be possible to prove its effectiveness. Currently, about 200 laboratories are working on a vaccine. 

I advocate that such a vaccine be provided at cost price. 

 

Unfortunately there is also bad news. The number of new infections is rising again in many countries. 

"An alarming new analysis conducted by the Victorian government shows nearly nine out of 10 residents did not self-isolate upon experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.

The detailed analysis measured 3810 cases between July 7 and 21

"I'm very unhappy and very sad to have to report that nearly nine in 10 - or 3400 cases - did not isolate between when they first felt sick and when they went to get a test," Mr Andrews said

"That's an interesting measure in that people have felt sick, they've got symptoms, and they've kept going shopping, they've kept going to work. "

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-carriers-spreading-virus-testing-falling-sick-covid19-update/73bd88e1-fe91-4b49-ac83-8a72d1c9452c

Melbourne doctor warns Australia could see US-level coronavirus outbreak

https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/coronavirus-dr-stephen-parnis-melbourne-warns-australia-could-battle-us-level-outbreak/d68b8dfa-1d12-4207-a7e0-e6dad49f5079

 

"Police are hunting hundreds of "quarantine quitters" who entered Queensland and ignored orders to isolate."

Queensland has one new case (overseas acquired and was transported directly to hotel quarantine) in the last 24 hours, 3 active cases in total. However, those who cross the border with false information and go into hiding are destroying the efforts of the past months. 

 

 

I have previously pointed out the air transfer through aerosols. It seems there is growing evidence of this. Under certain circumstances, this may be responsible for the fact that chains of infection could be traced back to bars and restaurants despite the measures taken.  

 

Indoor gatherings, gyms, restaurants, bars,... might not be a safe place, even with physical distancing,... 

 

[Tomster]

Thousands of Melbourne tradies and scores of other employees will be out of work for at least six weeks, as unparalleled stage four restrictions have been revealed. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews today unveiled the wide-scale measures after the state reported 429 new COVID-19 cases and 13 fatalities and a state of disaster was declared yesterday.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a $1500 per fortnight pandemic leave disaster payment for Victorians forced to self-isolate who do not have available sick leave.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks

• 185 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College

• 148 cases have been linked to Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown

• 129 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham

• 86 cases have been linked to JBS in Brooklyn

• 77 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac

• 71 cases have been linked to Melbourne Health Royal Park Campus

• 36 cases have been linked to Woolworths Distribution Centre Mulgrave

• 20 cases have been linked to Golden Farms Poultry in Breakwater

• 21 cases have been linked to Catholic Regional College in Sydenham

• 31 cases have been linked to the Linfox warehouse in Truganina

• 30 cases have been linked to St Vincent's Hospital

Three women have been charged with allegedly lying on their Queenland border declarations and are now cooperating with police inquiries.

A 19-year-old from Heritage Park, a 21-year-old from Acacia Ridge and another 21-year-old from Algester allegedly travelled to Victoria and are accused of deliberately giving authorities false documents in order to cross the border. Two of the women have since tested positive to COVID-19. "Police believe they have now identified all three Queenslanders who were at that party in Melbourne," Mr Miles said. "We don't think there are any others." Commissioner Carroll alleged Ms Muranga and Ms Lasu were "well involved" in the Melbourne party and received infringement notices while in Victoria.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk again voiced her anger over their alleged actions. "It is unbelievable to think Queenslanders are putting other Queenslanders at risk. That's what really annoys me here," Ms Palaszczuk said. "Yeah, I am angry … They have put the health of Queenslanders and their families at risk."

The borders for Victorians were already closed. 

 

Italian mayors in March

 

 

[Guest lev_igor33]

Too bad mainstream media doesn't  do such a thorough job of reporting as you do Tomster. Thank you for your sobering posts. 

[Tomster]

Thanks @lev_igor33

Frankly, the honour goes to the reporters of 9News. I was a bit lazy yesterday and mostly quoted a few lines to give a short update. 

Good journalism is based on facts and should be as objective as possible. The Australian media report a lot and in a good way (apart from Sky, which is sometimes quite populistic). 

My favourites is https://www.9news.com.au/, https://www.9news.com.au/ isn't bad either. Apart from that, daily updated data on case numbers, measures, etc. can be found on government websites. 

For Queenslanders https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19

Our Prime Minister (QLD) publishes daily updated numbers and statements on social media. 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Tomster

[Tomster]

Fifteen more people have died from COVID-19 in Victoria (one's a man in his 30s), with 729 new cases recorded. Both are record tallies since the pandemic began.

Melbourne 

 

All returning travellers entering New South Wales from Victoria will be required to enter a compulsory 14-day hotel quarantine.

Queensland closes its borders to all from New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory on Saturday 1 a.m. 

 

[Guest lev_igor33]

Your country has it together and has sane leadership, while in the US we have the Orange Blob, we are doomed. 

[Tomster]

The measures taken by the Australian and state governments in the fight against Covid-19 are reasonable. Tough decisions have to be made, even if some people have little understanding for them. 

"Closing our borders to Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT isn't a decision we take lightly.

But the health and safety of Queenslanders comes first.

Always." Annastacia Palaszczuk

She made tough decisions from the beginning. Of course the restrictions were severe. The election in October will show what the majority of Queenslanders think about it. However, a lockdown, which was later gradually eased in several stages, led to this result. 

Testing, tracing, isolating is practicable and proves its success in many countries. 

One of the most likely reasons for the dramatic surge in Victoria, especially Melbourne, is probably that tracing was somewhat neglected. But these measures, just like the framework conditions that are or have been created by governments, are just pieces of the puzzle. Each individual plays a part in whether or not the virus spreads. Some people have become reckless, complacent. 😠

Thanks to the successes achieved here in Queensland, we can move freely again (we don't) . The economy can recover. But people must simply understand that it always starts with 1 case. If positively tested people leave the quarantine, they not only endanger the community, they ruin the economy. 

 

On 8/5/2020 at 6:22 PM, lev_igor33 said:

Your country has it together and has sane leadership, while in the US we have the Orange Blob, we are doomed. 

I love the facial expression of the Australian journalist Jonathan Swan.  

 

Well, the POTUS was elected by the Electoral College, right? 

I admit that I do not understand every detail of the US electoral system. The only question I often ask myself is whether a democratic election is democratic, when I often read about voter suppression.  

 

I must register my residence in Germany (resident register). If I have more than one residence in Germany, I have to designate one of them as my registered primary residence. This automatically puts me on the electoral roll. Several weeks before an election I am sent a so-called election notification card. On this card my polling station is indicated among other things. I can fill out and return this card to request my ballot for the postal vote. With the necessary information on the card, I can also apply for the ballot online. This was simplified a few years ago by printing a QR code. Election day is always a Sunday. 

It's slightly different here in Australia. Australia doesn't have compulsory registration of residence. Residence information needs to be disclosed in many situations, such as voter registration, passport application, state health care card, and updated in relation to drivers licences, and so on. Voter registration is obligatory for Australian citizens (I am still a German citizen.). Apart from that, Australia is one among 19 democracies where voting is compulsory. Those who do not vote either provide a valid and sufficient reason not to vote or pay a fine (which equates to 1 penalty unit at the time of the offence ($133.45 as of 1 July 2019) - 2020 QLD State general elections). Election day is always a Saturday. Voters can snag themselves a "democracy sausage". 

Edited August 8, 2020 by Tomster
Corrected the position of a sentence.

[majikthis]

Meanwhile in Europe ....

In many European countries the number of infections is again on the rise.. While it is nowhere near the March/April peak, it is a worrying sign.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Sweden's chief medical expert, Anders Tegnell (the chap behind the country's controversial  response to the pandemic) a few days ago said that "we see no point in wearing a mask".  While the current numbers look good in Sweden, the country's strategy to avoid a full lockdown resulted in a much higher mortality rate than elsewhere in the Nordic region. Per 100,000 Swedish deaths even exceeded those in the US and Brazil.

And an unexpected side effect:

In Scotland the pandemic, or rather the UK government's response to it has strengthened Scottish support for "Scoxit". While Scotland has not fared much better than the rest of the UK in the covid crisis, the decisive, clear and transparent communication of the Scottish govt. and especially of  First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has increased confidence in her and her party the SNP.  In May 2021 general elections will be held in Scotland, and if the SNP wins with a larger margin that at the last elections, Sturgeon will have an even stronger legitimacy to support her demand for another independence referendum (in the 2014 referendum the No's won by a rletively comfortable 11% margin) . Now such referendums must first gain the approval of the UK Parliament.   As it is unlikely that London will allow it to go forward, Sturgeon has already indicated that she would be willing to hold an "illegal" referendum like Catalonia did. Economists argue that an independent Scotland could not "survive" even if it could rejoin the EU. But when did science and facts have ever stopped people from voting on an emotional basis (see Brexit)? Anyhow, there is a chance (slim as it may be) that we are watching the last days of the United Kingdom.

Edited August 7, 2020 by majikthis