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Brexit


JoelR

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I've been paying pretty close attention to Brexit, since I think it's going to be one of the biggest changes to the world order for the next decade.  It looks like it's been in forever debate and all I've taken away from Parliament is a guy who keeps shouting ORDEERRRRRRRR!!!  Also, I like that they run outside and then walk through two doors to vote.  That seems so old fashioned and quaint and thoroughly respectable.

In the meantime here's a lifesized British plush doll.  

  tumblr_pozfhjTgZT1rs6ymro1_500.jpg

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5 hours ago, JoelR said:

a guy who keeps shouting ORDEERRRRRRRR!!!

Order is important. 😁

I am sad the brits are leaving us but I’ve been talking to some brits and they said EU was never prominent over there. They had no visibility but were taken as boogeyman when something goes wrong. 😅

 

5 hours ago, JoelR said:

since I think it's going to be one of the biggest changes to the world order for the next decade.

I tend to disagree. Your POTUS is claiming that role imo. 🙄

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3 hours ago, Sammy said:

I tend to disagree. Your POTUS is claiming that role imo. 🙄

You're not alone.

Brexit.thumb.jpg.7f581971eb74151aad9e9b6baa97b866.jpg

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Our POTUS has a constitutional end, either at the end of this Presidency or reelection in four more years.  Leaving the EU, however, is permanent.  

I agree with your sentiment though that a lot of countries look to American leadership on a variety of topics.  And when we stop leading and start declaring that we only care about ourselves, that tends to bring out the nationalism in others.  

What I find fascinating about Brexit is that even though the people have voted to leave, the British Parliament can't even agree to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement.  That could be due to:

1. They don't actually want to leave, or

2. They want to leave but don't know what plan should be implemented after

In any case, they're headed for a hard exit.  It might crash their currency and financial markets, and trade will suffer.  

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1 hour ago, JoelR said:

Our POTUS has a constitutional end, either at the end of this Presidency or reelection in four more years.

That’s true. But the damage a POTUS is able to do can hold on for longer than his presidency. 

1 hour ago, JoelR said:

Leaving the EU, however, is permanent.  

It’s definitely not a short term decision but who says they can’t reapply in ten years time if they want to?

1 hour ago, JoelR said:

the British Parliament can't even agree to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. 

The reasons for that are very different. Here’s a few:

- For the Brexit hardliners, the deal with the EU is too soft; they want an even harder cut.

- The Brexiteers overall fear that the Northern Irish Backstop will be misused for never really leaving the EU.

- The Northern Irish party fully against the deal anyway (I forgot why)

- Labour Party is playing games about winning a potential reelection. 

- The people against Brexit are against the deal because they are against the whole Brexit.

 

1 hour ago, JoelR said:

In any case, they're headed for a hard exit.

No one really wants a hard Brexit. In any case everyone will agree to further move the exit date to the end of 2019 so they can come up with something “better”.

 

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On 3/29/2019 at 9:21 PM, Sammy said:

Our POTUS has a constitutional end, either at the end of this Presidency or reelection in four more years.

You scare me. 😉

On 3/29/2019 at 8:13 PM, JoelR said:

and start declaring that we only care about ourselves

I think similar thinking was accountable for the YES to Brexit.

In the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum 51.89 % voted Leave. 

Whether it's an election or a referendum, most people don't think they're adopting opinions that they think are right for the moment.

One argument put forward by the supporters of Brexit was that the UK pays far more to the EU (80.7 € per capita in 2017) than it gets in return. That's right from an accounting point of view. From an economic point of view, however, it is wrong. 

On 3/29/2019 at 9:21 PM, Sammy said:

The Northern Irish party fully against the deal anyway

Probably because most people in Northern Ireland had voted against Brexit. It was the same in Scotland.

On 3/29/2019 at 8:13 PM, JoelR said:

the British Parliament can't even agree to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement.

With this Punch and Judy show, the parliamentarians have already done damage to their country. The number of companies that will relocate their branches and production facilities is increasing. It no longer matters what turn the Brexit drama will take.

On 3/29/2019 at 8:13 PM, JoelR said:

It might crash their currency and financial markets, and trade will suffer. 

Maybe. However, everyone will recover sooner or later. I love those black days on the stock exchange.

Another scenario would be that the Queen proclaims the absolute monarchy again.

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1 hour ago, Tomster said:
On 3/29/2019 at 9:21 PM, Sammy said:

The Northern Irish party fully against the deal anyway

Probably because most people in Northern Ireland had voted against Brexit. It was the same in Scotland.

The whole process is, as Tommy aptly called it,  a  Punch and Judy show (and what a thoroughly English thing that is). The only consistent (and mildly honourable) behaviour was shown - surprisingly enough -  by PM David Cameron who resigned because - he said - as a pro-EU politician he was not suited to go through with Brexit. And while I did not particularly like him, he at least had some semblance of leadership.  As to Labour, Mr Corbyn is a fence rider, trying to please both sides within the party,  totally discrediting himself with both camps.

Yes, in NI cca 56% voted "remain". As to the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party), they are probably  the only major  pro-Brexit  political formation in N-Ireland (although they lost five seats in the 2017 National elections). And Ms May needed them to keep her majority in Parliament (and a fat lot of good it did her). With a no deal Brexit, NI

Scotland is the most interesting region, I think. In Scotland 62% voted Remain and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been a staunch anti -Brexit campaigner ever since. With hard Brexit looming ever closer, she (and the majority of Holyrood) is threatening to hold a referendum about leaving the UK entirely.

What really baffles me is that the regions that supported Brexit are the ones benefiting the most from various EU policies (Wales, the North of England).

2 hours ago, Tomster said:

Another scenario would be that the Queen proclaims the absolute monarchy again.

Hah, that would be fun to watch. Let me quote Kawika's post in the "what made you laugh" thread:

2x90ba.jpg

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9 hours ago, Tomster said:

One argument put forward by the supporters of Brexit was that the UK pays far more to the EU (80.7 € per capita in 2017) than it gets in return. That's right from an accounting point of view. From an economic point of view, however, it is wrong. 

Mind you, Britain has the rebate that Thatcher pressured out of the EU (that is, from their contribution to the common budget, the UK gets back a certain amount just for the heck of it).

And even from an accounting point of view it is not as clear-cut as that. At around the time of the referendum I had a heated debate at ChumForum with the Right Honourable Master Z (a militant brexiteer if there ever was one), so I had to look up the stats (boring, boring) of the Treasury about EU funds in the UK. What I found was that - while technically the UK is indeed a net contributor -  if we count in  the EU funds not passing through the government (from student grants through funds the universities directly acquire from the EU - eg. RTD programmes-, to money private companies, NGOs etc receive), the UK actually receives more than its contributition to the EU budget.

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14 hours ago, majikthis said:

What I found was that - while technically the UK is indeed a net contributor -  if we count in  the EU funds not passing through the government (from student grants through funds the universities directly acquire from the EU - eg. RTD programmes-, to money private companies, NGOs etc receive), the UK actually receives more than its contributition to the EU budget.

I'd be interested in these sources. All expenditures made by the EU in a country are part of the EU budget. 

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7 hours ago, malelover said:

I'd be interested in these sources.

I'm very interested in that, too.

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(edited)
14 hours ago, Tomster said:

I'm very interested in that, too.

Gods above guys, it was three years ago - check out the Treasury.

21 hours ago, malelover said:

I'd be interested in these sources. All expenditures made by the EU in a country are part of the EU budget. 

Yes, but I seem to recall that the UK govt - just like the Hungarian, or I assume any other EU country publishes stats only about funds that go through its own channels (that is the agency/-ies the given government created to distribute the money, like Cohesion or Regional Development Funds, or CAP measures). Direct funding to non-government entities (like RTD grants )  - is  not part of the national budget (as opposed to the EU budget)* . I am sure one could check out the EU stats, but that is way too much work.

Then again, I might be totally wrong. I am but a humble project writer, with no head for economics. In any case, my main point was (although admittedly hastily formulated) that the difference btw. what the UK pays into the EU budget and what it gets back is a lot less, than what Brexiteers rant about.

And, as Tomster (and other prominent economists 😙) has pointed out, from an economics point of view the Brexiteers are wrong. BTW, an analyst from Goldman Sachs said yesterday on CNN, that this Brexit chaos is costing the UK economy about £600 million per week." Goldman Sachs found that Brexit had cost the UK, the world's fifth largest economy, nearly 2.5 pc of GDP at the end of last year, compared to what growth might have been without the 2016 vote" (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexit-chaos-costs-uk-economy-600m-a-week-goldman-sachs-37972327.html

*Eg. the Central European University (one of the best unis in Hungary - well, WAS one of the best, as it has been forced to move to Vienna by our idiotic government who claimed it was too liberal for a Christian country 🤮 🤮) has recently won cca. 10 million Euros for a joint research project. But that is between the ERC and the university, and the money will not appear in government stats.

Edited by majikthis
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15 hours ago, majikthis said:

Then again, I might be totally wrong. I am but a humble project writer, with no head for economics.

Never mind. 🙂

It's really not easy to get any insight at all. I think there's just a little misunderstanding. 

I was referring to the operating budgetary balance, published by the EU. 

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/graphs/revenue_expediture.html

You, on the other hand, referred to government institutions within the member states and their statistics. Direct payments do not appear in these statistics.

15 hours ago, majikthis said:

*Eg. the Central European University (one of the best unis in Hungary - well, WAS one of the best, as it has been forced to move to Vienna by our idiotic government who claimed it was too liberal for a Christian country 🤮 🤮) has recently won cca. 10 million Euros for a joint research project. But that is between the ERC and the university, and the money will not appear in government stats.

Exactly. The Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (Horizon 2020) is the fund the 10 million Euros comes from. Horizon 2020 is part of the budget of the European Union. These payments appear in their reports (~1083 million Euro in 2017 for UK).

For anybody interested in boring stuff: How the EU budget is spent

15 hours ago, majikthis said:

And, as Tomster (and other prominent economists 😙) has pointed out, from an economics point of view the Brexiteers are wrong. BTW, an analyst from Goldman Sachs said yesterday on CNN, that this Brexit chaos is costing the UK economy about £600 million per week." Goldman Sachs found that Brexit had cost the UK, the world's fifth largest economy, nearly 2.5 pc of GDP at the end of last year, compared to what growth might have been without the 2016 vote" (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexit-chaos-costs-uk-economy-600m-a-week-goldman-sachs-37972327.html

👍

15 hours ago, majikthis said:

In any case, my main point was (although admittedly hastily formulated) that the difference btw. what the UK pays into the EU budget and what it gets back is a lot less, than what Brexiteers rant about.

I completely agree with you on that.

It’s been claimed that the UK send GBP 350 million a week to the EU (These figures were used by the populist Brexit proponents.). That misses out the rebate, the amount they get back, and it doesn’t represent the total economic costs and benefits of EU membership to the UK.

I can't be mad at the average citizen (this is by no means meant to be derogatory) for having voted to leave. I agree with @Sammy that the EU was not prominent in the UK. Unfortunately, this also applies to other countries such as Germany, France, Italy ... Too many people see the payments made to the EU as such, but not the backflow and (economic) benefits.

Anyway, I had a chance to talk with some gentlemen in Manchester yesterday. Their desperate hope is a further postponement and a new referendum. They have lost confidence in their parliament. 

I myself am afraid, it will end in a no-deal Brexit.

"Ask two economists and you'll get at least three opinions."
I fear the costs stated by Goldman Sachs are rather optimistic in this no-deal scenario. Devaluation of their currency, tariffs, lack of investments, etc. will lead to negative growth, and will also lead to the outflow of skilled employees. Under good circumstances, it will take 10-15 years to restore confidence in the trading partner and business location UK.

 

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6 hours ago, Tomster said:

Never mind. 🙂

It's really not easy to get any insight at all. I think there's just a little misunderstanding. 

I was referring to the operating budgetary balance, published by the EU. 

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/graphs/revenue_expediture.html

You, on the other hand, referred to government institutions within the member states and their statistics. Direct payments do not appear in these statistics.

 

 

That is what I was trying to say, so thanks a ton for clearing that up.

See, the reason I had to use the Treasury's stats back then on ChumForum was that the Right Honourable Master Z (a hardcore Brexiteer, bless his heart, even though he himself benefited from various CAP policies, and had only Polish and Romanian workers on his farm) would not have believed any figures published by the EU.

As an aside - I am wondering why friend ColtMann so gallantly gave us stiffies ... ... Especially now that the two biggest dicks, Boris Johnson and Nick Farage have withdrawn a bit (Mr Farage resigned as UKIP leader right after the referendum, now Mr Johnson - a Tory PM hopeful - is under fire on Vote Leave's lawbreaking)

Boris-Farage-670405.jpg

 

Edited by majikthis
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20 hours ago, majikthis said:

See, the reason I had to use the Treasury's stats back then on ChumForum was that the Right Honourable Master Z (a hardcore Brexiteer, bless his heart, even though he himself benefited from various CAP policies, and had only Polish and Romanian workers on his farm) would not have believed any figures published by the EU.

Do you think he trusted any figures? 😀

I have learned in my business and life that there are people who reject any valid argument because they are convinced that only their own point of view is the right one. 

I suppose the Chexit* was his own final test for the Brexit. 

*ChumForum left the Internet to be independent 

 

(This post does not have to be taken seriously. Gallows humor is also a type of humor.)

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Heh, when you think things can't get any worse, they do.

Brexit metaphor? UK parliament suspended amid suspected water leak

A parliamentary session in the UK had to be suspended this afternoon after water could be seen dripping from the roof.
The inability of the House of Commons to keep water out is being seen as a metaphor for Brexit: a broken parliament unable to get May's EU divorce deal approved.
 
leaking-roof-after-auction.jpg
 
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  • 6 months later...

This was on a placard at an anti-Brexit demo.

"Do you want a blowjob?"

"Yes"

"It's from a piranha"

"Then no"

"You can't change your mind now.  Blowjob means blowjob."

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